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當(dāng)前位置：金力永磁稀土行情簡(jiǎn)報(bào)201747期（總第213期）12-25~12-29
Week 52, 2017
1. 重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News
本周稀土市場(chǎng)行情鐠釹價(jià)格繼續(xù)保持小幅上漲，鏑鐵和鋱價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價(jià)格:鐠釹金屬價(jià)格395-405元/KG (28日百川資訊, 鐠釹金屬價(jià)格410-420元/KG )，鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1150-1180元/KG (28日百川資訊, 鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1170-1180元/KG )，鋱金屬價(jià)格3800-3850元/KG。
This week, the price of PrNd still increase slightly，DyFe and Tb continued to be stable in the rare earth market. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd 395-405 RMB/KG(PrNd 410-420 RMB/KG on 28th Baichuan News), DyFe 1150-1180 RMB/KG(DyFe 1170-1180 RMB/KG on 28thBaichuan News) and Tb 3800-3850 RMB/KG.
2. 業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders
2017年于中國(guó)稀土業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，是不平凡的一年。在經(jīng)歷了持續(xù)兩年的低迷、下滑行情后，今年無(wú)疑是稀土價(jià)格與價(jià)值逐步回歸的一年。
2017 is a special year for RE industry. In 2017, there is no doubt that rare earth price and value is gradually increased after two year's downturn and decline.
年內(nèi)，政策上的調(diào)整、國(guó)儲(chǔ)的推動(dòng)、環(huán)保整頓、稀土打黑專項(xiàng)行動(dòng)，都對(duì)稀土供給端產(chǎn)生約束，產(chǎn)量明顯下降，下游企業(yè)積極備貨，需求升溫，從而令價(jià)格大幅上漲。以氧化鐠釹為例，從年初的不足30萬(wàn)元/噸一路漲至高的54萬(wàn)元/噸，價(jià)格將近翻倍。然而后期在沒(méi)有持續(xù)的政策刺激之下，價(jià)格還是出現(xiàn)了滑坡。8月開(kāi)始，國(guó)內(nèi)稀土價(jià)格開(kāi)始松動(dòng)，并一路下行，直至12月才略有好轉(zhuǎn)。多數(shù)稀土產(chǎn)品的跌幅將近50%。因此，今年稀土整體行情呈現(xiàn)先揚(yáng)后抑。今年輕稀土表現(xiàn)較好，其中，鐠釹的表現(xiàn)搶眼，變化也大，因?yàn)殓掆S對(duì)應(yīng)的永磁下游，仍在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。
This year, the adjustment on politics,promotion of SRB,reorganization of environment protection and crackdown action of rare earth restrained the supply of rare earth. The production decreased obviously and downstream industries stock up positively, which led to the growth of requirement and rapidly increased RE price.Take PrNd oxides for example,the price increased from 300,000 RMB/T to 540,000 RMB/T,almost double when compared to the price in the early 2017.However,without continually policy stimulus,the price has slightly dropped.From August, the domestic RE price started decline and moderate growth in December.Most of the rare earth products declined nearly 50%.In a word, rare earth market has experienced increase-decline process this year.However,light rare earth performed well,especially PrNd,which contributed to the steadily growth of permanent magnet.
稀土打黑行動(dòng)自2016年12月至2017年4月在全國(guó)開(kāi)展打擊稀土違法違規(guī)行為專項(xiàng)行動(dòng)。“專項(xiàng)行動(dòng)將逐步影響稀土供應(yīng)量，有效規(guī)范行業(yè)秩序。"業(yè)內(nèi)人士說(shuō)。 發(fā)改委、財(cái)政部、環(huán)保部、公安部等部門的人員參加了會(huì)議。與會(huì)部門表示，將進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮部門合力，共同推進(jìn)行業(yè)秩序整頓工作，研究解決發(fā)現(xiàn)的突出問(wèn)題，加大聯(lián)合懲戒力度，推動(dòng)《稀有金屬管理?xiàng)l例》盡快出臺(tái)，保持對(duì)稀土違法違規(guī)行為的高壓態(tài)勢(shì)，確保整頓取得實(shí)效。業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為，此次會(huì)議透露出國(guó)家將繼續(xù)加大稀土行業(yè)的整頓力度，新一輪稀土“打黑"也將啟動(dòng)。
The Rare earth crackdown carried out the special action to combat the illegal violations of rare earth across the country from December 2016 to April 2017.Insiders indicated that Special operation will gradually affect rare earth supply and effectively standardize the order of industry.Personnel of NDRC,Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Environment,Ministry of Public Security attended the meeting.The departments said they would cooperate to regularize the industry order, trash out prominent problems,strengthen penalties and promote the Regulations on Administration of Rare Metal in time. And the high pressure on rare earth violation behaviors will ensure reorganization effective implement.Insiders indicated that this meeting showed the government will continue to intensify the consolidation of rare earth industry.A new round of crackdown on rare earth will start.
今年已經(jīng)開(kāi)展了三次收儲(chǔ)，縱觀2017年稀土收儲(chǔ)形勢(shì)，大體呈現(xiàn)以下新趨勢(shì)，即收儲(chǔ)頻次增多，但每次的收儲(chǔ)規(guī)?？s減。隨著收儲(chǔ)價(jià)格均逐步提高，每次微幅溢價(jià)。
The SRB has carried out storage three times in 2017. Throughout rare earth storage situation, it generally presents a new trend of an increased frequency on storage while downscale each time.With the storage price gradually increased,it is slightly premium every time.
展望2018年，SMM認(rèn)為，稀土行業(yè)的發(fā)展及價(jià)格走勢(shì)依舊對(duì)國(guó)家政策的依賴性較大。稀土開(kāi)采指標(biāo)大幅調(diào)整的可能性不大，基本仍會(huì)保持在近幾年的水平。國(guó)儲(chǔ)存在太多不確定性，但市場(chǎng)普遍對(duì)于收儲(chǔ)寄予較高預(yù)期。稀土打黑及環(huán)保督查將持續(xù)存在，一定程度縮減了市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)量。需求層面，穩(wěn)中有升，其中新能源汽車的快速發(fā)展帶來(lái)的釹鐵硼需求的穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，將是確定并較為樂(lè)觀的。因此在供應(yīng)仍有縮減空間、需求穩(wěn)中向好的背景下，供需之間的差距將進(jìn)一步縮小，稀土價(jià)格會(huì)繼續(xù)得支撐，SMM認(rèn)為明年以鐠釹為代表的稀土價(jià)格有望繼續(xù)沖高，高達(dá)55-60萬(wàn)元/噸。
SMM considers that the development and price trend of rare earth industry will still highly dependence on the national policy in 2018.Rare earth mining index is unlikely to overhaul, it will remain at the levels of recent years.The SRB has too much uncertainties, but the market still has highly expectations for storage.Rare earth crackdown and environmental supervision will continue to exist, which has reduced the market supply in some way. The demand is steadily growing,especially the rapid development of new energy vehicles,which is determined and optimistic.In the background of flexible decrease of supply and slightly increasing demand,the gap between supply and demand will be narrowed,which will contribute to support the RE price.SMM forecasts that the RE price such as PrNd will continue to increase,expects up to 550,000-600,000 RMB/T.
3. 趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)
2017年12月29日
Dec. 29th, 2017
提示：以上信息僅供參考！
Notes: the information above is for reference only!
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