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當(dāng)前位置：金力永磁稀土行情簡(jiǎn)報(bào)201712期（總第178期）04-10~04-14
JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 04-10~04-14
2017年第15周
Week 15, 2017
1.重要新聞簡(jiǎn)報(bào)Briefing of Important News
本周稀土市場(chǎng)價(jià)格鐠釹和鋱均有小幅上漲，鏑鐵價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。亞洲金屬網(wǎng)價(jià)格: 鐠釹金屬362-365元/KG，鏑鐵合金價(jià)格1230-1250元/KG，鋱金屬價(jià)格4250-4300元/KG。
This week the market price of PrNd and Tb had increased slightly and the price of DyFe was relatively stable. Prices from Asian Metal of this weekend presented: PrNd 362-365RMB/KG, DyFe 1230-1250RMB/KG, Tb metal 4250-4300RMB/KG.
4月13日從工信部獲悉，工信部下達(dá)2017年一批稀土生產(chǎn)總量控制計(jì)劃，其中礦產(chǎn)品計(jì)劃在52500噸，冶煉分離產(chǎn)品計(jì)劃在50075噸。（2016年一批稀土生產(chǎn)總控制計(jì)劃為，全國(guó)礦產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)總量控制在52500噸,冶煉分離產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)總量控制在45000噸）
On April 13th, the MIIT has launched the first batch of 2017 total rare earth production control schedule, which includes 52500 tons minerals products and 50075 tons melting separation products. (The first batch of 2016 total rare earth production control schedule is 52500 tons minerals products and 45000 tons melting separation products.)
2.業(yè)內(nèi)人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders
近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，國(guó)內(nèi)稀土價(jià)格一路向好，其周期性行情經(jīng)歷了一波漲勢(shì)。以3月份為例，輕重稀土價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲，氧化鋱報(bào)價(jià)315萬(wàn)元/噸至320萬(wàn)元/噸，每噸漲10萬(wàn)元，金屬鋱報(bào)價(jià)415萬(wàn)元/噸至420萬(wàn)元/噸，每噸漲10萬(wàn)元。輕稀土方面，鐠釹產(chǎn)品集體漲價(jià)，氧化鐠釹報(bào)價(jià)28萬(wàn)元/噸至28.5萬(wàn)元/噸，每噸漲0.2萬(wàn)元，金屬鐠釹報(bào)價(jià)36萬(wàn)元/噸至36.5萬(wàn)元/噸，每噸漲0.2萬(wàn)元，其漲幅近10%。
In the recent few months, the domestic rare earth price is quite good, which has experienced a periodic increasing. Use the price in March as an example, the price of Tb oxide was 3,150,000RMB/T-3,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T; the price of Tb metal was 4,150,000RMB/T-4,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T. And in the light rare earth aspect, all the prices of PrNd products had increased, the price of PrNd oxide was 280,000RMB/T-285,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T; the price of PrNd metal was 360,000RMB/T-365,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T and the increasing rate is almost 10%.
綜合來(lái)看，稀土行情的變化主要基于三個(gè)方面，一是自1月份以來(lái)，各地稀土“打黑"行動(dòng)陸續(xù)推進(jìn)，再加上環(huán)保督查從嚴(yán)，將有效整頓行業(yè)；二是清明節(jié)前稀土收儲(chǔ)中標(biāo)成功，數(shù)量和價(jià)格均高于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期；三是節(jié)后下游需求恢復(fù)，廠家生產(chǎn)采購(gòu)量增加，助推價(jià)格上漲。
Overall, the price changing of the rare earth market are mainly based on three aspects, first, starting from January, the special operation on illegal rare earth as well as strictly environmental protection supervision; second, rare earth purchasing and storage has won the bidding before Qingming festival and the quantity/price are higher than market expectation; third, the downstream demand has recovered and purchasing increased, which help to boost the price.
客觀地說(shuō)，近年來(lái)，稀土價(jià)格不斷受挫，價(jià)格的持續(xù)下跌，主要在于當(dāng)前稀土行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩嚴(yán)重以及部分不法分子對(duì)稀土資源的非法開(kāi)采甚至走私等一系列問(wèn)題。雖然國(guó)家針對(duì)稀土業(yè)一系列政策的出臺(tái)，起到了推動(dòng)稀土行情的發(fā)展，但稀土周期力量并未完全釋放。目前，稀土業(yè)后續(xù)的政策組合拳還會(huì)出現(xiàn)，其周期性行情變化將引人關(guān)注。
Objectively speaking, the rare earth prices constantly suffer a setback and continuously decrease in the past few years. The main reasons were excess production capacity, illegal mining and smuggling. Even our government has issued a series of policy on rare earth which promote the development of rare earth market, the cycle power has not fully released.
針對(duì)稀土行情周期的判斷，分析人士指出，要分為大周期和小周期觀察，大周期就是國(guó)內(nèi)稀土業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的陣痛期，轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)完成以后，稀土業(yè)將有機(jī)會(huì)進(jìn)入大周期的增長(zhǎng)。在這個(gè)進(jìn)程中，從去年11月到現(xiàn)在，稀土業(yè)正經(jīng)歷一輪小周期，相當(dāng)于大周期放緩中的一波“小陽(yáng)春"行情。
The insider point out that the rare earth market can be divided into major cycle and minor cycle. The major cycle is the transformation and upgrading period of domestic rare earth industry, once it is finished, the rare earth industry will enter into a major cycle increasing. From November last year till now, the rare earth is going through a minor cycle, which is a slowdown “minor spring" in major cycle.
至于稀土這一波“小陽(yáng)春"行情能夠持續(xù)多久，有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，有望持續(xù)到今年年中以后，這也和國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)企業(yè)指數(shù)上行趨勢(shì)相匹配。究其原因，主要是工業(yè)庫(kù)存由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正，但仍比歷史平均水平低，所以企業(yè)補(bǔ)庫(kù)存還會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。因此如果價(jià)格能夠持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，稀土產(chǎn)能隨時(shí)都可以恢復(fù)，其行情仍有上漲空間。
The analysts do not know how long the “minor spring" will last and it is thought that it will last till the middle of this year which is matched with the domestic industrial enterprise upward trend. Mainly reason is the industrial inventory turn from negative to positive, but they are still lower than the historical average, so enterprise inventory filling up will continue for a period of time. Therefore if prices could continue to grow, rare earth production capacity can be restored at any time and the prices will still have a rising space.
3.趨勢(shì)圖（參考亞洲金屬網(wǎng)）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)
2017年04月14日
April 14th, 2017
提示：以上信息僅供參考！
Notes: the information above is for reference only!
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